CO129-623-9 Estimates of Expenditure- includes a report for the year ending March 1952 1-2-1951 - 30-11-1951 — Page 125

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hoped that the efforts of this Government to cbtain some modification of these restrictions will yield satisfactory results, but it is impossible at this stage to gauge the degree of success likely to be attained. The revenue figures presented in the estimates seem reasonable on the information now available, but it will be appreciated that, if the situation develops on less satisfactory lines than is hoped, they may prove too optimistic at a total of $247,280,850.

Duties.

The estimate of 56,400,000 is 17,100,000 higher than the original estimate for 1950/51 and $13,700,000 lower than the revised estimate. As has been pointed out earlier in this memorandum, the yield from duties during the current year has been a great deal higher than was anticipated. When the 1950/51 estimates were prepared, a considerable fall in receipts from tobacco duty seemed highly probable, and, on the best advice available, a drop of nearly $172 million was provided for. As the position has actually developed, it seems probable that the drop will only be in the region of 3 million. Receipts from tobacco duty are completely unpredictable and there is always the possibility that the yield one year may fall to only half of the total for the previous year. As regards 1951/52 a figure of $25 million has been estimated for, which allows for a drop of 72 million on the expected receipts for the present year.

The yield from duties on hydrocarbon oils has previously been under-estimated, as insufficient allowance had been made for the increase in the volume of motor traffic and for the number of junks now fitted with diesel engines. Another factor which justifies an increase in the estimate for this particular sub-head is the increased use of fuel oil in industry. An increase over the approved estimate for the current year has accordingly been allowed for, and also in the case of liquor duty, in which case too, insufficient allowance had been made for the effect of the increased population. Minor adjustments have been made in other sub-heads.

Rates.

The estimate of $27,040,000 is $5,522,000 higher than the original estimate for 1950/51 and $400,885 lower than the revised estimate. There has been a slackening in the high rate of building activity and it seems probable that a halt will be called for the moment in the steady annual increase in the yield from rates which has taken place since the re-occupation.

Internal Revenue.

The estimate of $83,100,000 is $6,600,000 higher than the original estimate for 1950/51 and $4,560,000 higher than the revised estimate. This increase in the estimate is justified because a final payment of $6 million will become due during the year in respect of estate duty on one large estate.

Moreover, although it did not prove possible, owing to a number of difficulties, to introduce the proposed Business Registration Tax during the current year, it is proposed to do so early in 1951/52 with an annual fee of $200 instead of $300, which was the figure originally fixed. reduction in the fee is to prevent any possibility of hardship on small businesses and the estimated yield from this tax will accordingly be reduced from 36 million to $4 million.

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